Wednesday officially marks the first full day of the fall season, and even though some summer flashes are still expected, Waterloo Region is getting ready to brace for some inevitable brisk weather in the coming months.
As far as that upcoming forecast is concerned, though, it may still be a while before that bite of winter is really felt.
Experts have begun making their predictions for the fall season ahead and, here in Waterloo Region and much of southern Ontario, it’s shaping up to be a warmer, drier fall than average.
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“Although this fall as a whole may end up tilting above-seasonal for most of Ontario, we may actually run surprisingly close to seasonal for a large chunk of mid-September through mid-October,” said Meteorologist Tyler Hamilton with The Weather Network.
“A larger signal for warmer conditions emerges by late fall, which will create concern for early ski-area snowmaking.”
According to AccuWeather, the direct October forecast shows daily high temperatures ranging from around 8 C to 22 C, with lows between the freezing mark and 13 C.
In contrast, it predicts that November will see average highs from around 1 C to 12 C, so temperatures are still expected to hover above freezing as the region begins pushing towards Winter.
Hamilton added that much of the province is expected to see below-normal precipitation, with fewer “classic fall storms” expected.
“Warmer conditions overall doesn’t mean we’ll go entirely without classic doses of chilly air,” he stated.
“But watch for a fall fake-out; an early season chill doesn’t spell the beginning of winter just yet.”
On average, the region begins seeing its first hit of snowfall around Nov. 3, but the winter forecast for 2026-27 still remains unclear, which has become a more rapidly changing situation thanks to what’s been referred to as a Super El Niño.
For context, El Niño is a climate pattern in which average sea temperatures rise, leading to weakened winds and further weather impacts as a result, with a Super El Niño bringing further heightened conditions.
That system is set to lead to that warmer end to fall and kick-off to winter across Waterloo Region and southern Ontario, with less cold air expected to be drawn over the Great Lakes.
All in all, a warmer and drier fall is expected in the region, but always take forecasts and weather predictions with a grain of salt, as Waterloo Region knows all too well that Mother Nature likes to throw the odd curveball into the skies.
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