With well over half the year now in the rear-view mirror, Grand River Transit (GRT) is starting to take a peek at what trends have been seen so far in 2026, but a new report is showing that numbers for the local transit service have continued heading in the wrong direction.
A new mid-year report is showing that overall ridership across buses and the ION has dropped by as much as 9.6 per cent throughout the first half of 2026 compared with the same period of time last year.
In terms of what that means for actual riders, it points to a loss of 1.1 million passengers from 11.4 million through the first half of 2025 down to 10.3 million so far this year.
According to GRT, the sizeable drop is “mainly due to another drop in the local student population following new immigration policies and revised international student caps announced by the federal government in late 2025.”
It said that the trend is expected to continue, if not slightly improve, as the remainder of the year progresses.
“Forecasted ridership for year-end 2026 is anticipated to be 20.2 million, down 8.6 per cent compared to 22.1 million in 2025,” said GRT in its mid-year report.
“Student enrolment projections appear to stabilize at this level for 2027 and beyond, but downtown office vacancy rates in Waterloo Region remain high. These pressures will inform GRT’s future service plans.”
The drop in ridership has been seen since 2024, when student enrollment numbers took a hit across Ontario following an international student cap that was instituted by the federal government, which led to further sweeping changes centred around the province’s colleges in particular.
In response to the continued drop, GRT has launched a series of new strategies in an effort to recoup lost revenue and increase ridership. Some of those include Connect-to-GO expansions, its 2-Ride Fare Card Promotion, a new high school program, the Older Adults Pilot, and more.
While those efforts have been instituted in the hopes of driving those figures back in the right direction, GRT still said that it anticipates “to end 2026 with an unfavourable variance of approximately $0.5 million, primarily driven by higher than budgeted fuel costs and revenue shortfalls.”
Those details and more are set to be brought forward to regional councillors for review at a council meeting Tuesday, August 11, with a year-end report expected to be seen in the first quarter of 2027.
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